Home

The following is an extract from the MAGIC Diplomatic Summary No. 1204 of July 12, 1945, summarizing an intercepted report from Turkish Ambassador to France Menemencioglu which reveals the degree to which informed officials in Europe feared that what was then thought the likely course of the war against Japan might so upset the military equilibrium as to lay all Europe open to Soviet domination.

Japan's leaders being well-informed of European conditions and of Allied troop strengths and transfers there by reports from its neutral-nation embassies, this was surely a factor in their strategic thinking. It was likely what Vice Admiral Ōnishi had in mind in his remark to Yatsugi Kazuo that if Japan could inflict heavy losses on U.S. invasion forces while Soviet armies were flooding into Manchuria, it would then be fine to negotiate peace "as the international situation develops". Ōnishi on Strategy to Exploit Soviet Threat.

Extract from MAGIC Diplomatic Summary No. 1204, July 12, 1945

2. Catroux-Menemencioglu conversation
On 4 July Turkish Ambassador Menemencioglu reported that in the course of an interview late in June with General Catroux, French Ambassador to Russia currently in Paris, the latter had made substantially the following statements:

a. Stalin himself is the most moderate element in Russia; however, very ambitious men are grouped around him, and the future frontier which those men want to draw around Russia is so wide that it could not be effaced.

b. Only the existing military equilibrium is protecting Europe today from the worst consequences. That equilibrium results from (1) the air superiority of the Americans and British and (2) the 5,500,000 experienced German troops who are in their hands. The Russians well know that these prisoners, together with the great material potential of the Americans, constitute a reserve of strength. However, if the Far Eastern war lasts very long--as it unfortunately will--one must assume that the Americans and the British, especially the Americans, will send a greater force to the Far East and that will cause the Russians to cast off their present comparative moderation.

c. Stalin proposed the Soviet-French alliance and got General de Gaulle and Bidault to accept the text prepared by the Russians, word for word, without discussion of a single point. The Alliance may be considered a success of Soviet policy and no credit is due the French Government.

According to Menemencioglu the conversation also touched on Soviet-Turkish relations, as follows: "General Catroux mentioned the Soviet demands made of us. He informed me of the difficult position of Turkish Ambassador Selim Sarper and told me that these demands could, in principle, produce question after question. At the present time he did not think it probable that the Soviets would venture on a military operation, but the point was not to let them strike us from within. If they left the matter in the air they could expect to produce a panic amongst us.

"He asked whether the Turkish public was likely to split on this question. I mentioned that the Turkish nation was very sensitive when faced with foreign questions and said: ’Whatever decision should be taken, the whole nation would stand united around the Chief.’ General Catroux said: ’That is half the battle.'"